- Stronger euro and rising raw material prices as load factors
- The Outlook now is interesting by leakage from hedging transactions
- Hard estimated impact of US Steuereform on European companies
- Medium and long-term effects of the tax reform on competitive position and demand
Now but indiscriminately in this correction to press the sell button stating all shares have become too expensive become, could however be as the wrong way. This particularly applies to values from the second and third series, where in the coming weeks after submission of the balance-sheet figures the chaff should separate itself from the wheat. In addition to the actual numbers also the Outlook on the current financial year for the company is likely to be clearly differentiated as yet in the past few quarters.
The impact of the rising euro on figures and Outlook are a big issue. Some trademark oriented values such as the machine builders, the rally of the common currency should have left last year already their skid marks. Currently major short positions in stocks such as AIXTRON, Heidelberger Druck, Krones and the truck and trailer supplier SAF Holland be rebuilt for fear of disappointment. In addition to the stronger euro, but also the higher raw material prices are likely to become the load factor for some trademarks. So for example the purchase prices of the plastics processor of POLYTEC rely heavily by the price of oil. Even more, these effects are likely to come to fruition but in the current quarter and in the Outlook of the company for the full year. As at many companies, the hedges against currency and commodity fluctuations just expire. And so is to be expected that the boards of some companies will communicate more cautiously to the capital market.
What impact can have a prudent capital market communication in combination with excessive profit expectations of the market and increased ratings, had an exemplary reflected last week on the share price of Washtec AG. The car wash manufacturer published good numbers for the fiscal year 2017, but at the same time hinted that winning will be 2018 easily in the first quarter in the prior year quarter. This however was extremely positively impacted by large orders of some key customers. So a profit decline would be nothing unusual for investors who are more closely track the company. Nevertheless, left the stock market too cautious Outlook of the company with a one-day drop of 14 per cent.
The determinable for now still hard consequences of tax reform in the United States are another uncertainty factor for the Outlook of the company. Many European companies have been here already first estimates the short-term influence on their tax provisions, the either positive (E.g., Daimler, BMW, Fresenius) or negative (such as Heidelberger Druck, QIAGEN) should fail. Far more important however you are medium to long-term impact of tax reform on the competitive position of the companies and their customers demand behavior. European companies that have manufacturing plants in the United States and sell even their products there, should find a positive effect on their profits due to lower taxes. As profiteers on the German exchange lists so the German automakers BMW and Daimler in question, together with its broad-based suppliers who have their works due to the logistical requirements next to the car manufacturer.
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